Pamela S. Perlich
March 27, 2014
County level population estimates for July 1, 2013 just released from the Population Division of the U.S. Census Bureau indicate that net in-migration has returned to Utah. This migration is concentrated in the urban core counties of Salt Lake, Utah, and Davis as well as Washington County in southwestern Utah, and the energy production counties of Duchesne and Uintah. Notably, the two college-dominated counties outside the urban core, Iron and Cache, are estimated to have had net out-migration. Coal counties, Emery and Carbon, are also estimated to have had net out-migration.
At the state level, the Utah population is estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau to have increased by 46,001 residents in the year ending July 1, 2013 to reach 2,900,872. Natural increase is estimated to be 35,965 and net migration is estimated to be 9,920. The annual increase exceeds the 2012 increment by about 6,000. Because natural increase has been mostly flat, this incremental increase is accounted for by greater net in-migration. The estimated annual net in-migration of 9,920 in 2013 is the largest estimated net inflow since the onset of the Great Recession, and it provides additional evidence of the relative strength of the Utah economy.
At the state level, annual births peaked in 2007 and have declined annually since to 50,840 in FY 2013. Deaths have been mostly flat, declining slightly to 14,875 in FY 2013. The result is a slight decline in the natural increase component to 35,965 in FY 2013. Net international immigration is estimated to be 4,353 and net domestic in-migration is estimated to be 5,567. Because of the current slow rate of international immigration to the U.S. and data and methods used by the U.S. Census Bureau, much of the estimated 2013 net international immigration is accounted for by returning LDS missionaries. So it is likely that the domestic flow accounts for the bulk of net in-migrants to the state in this set of estimates. Even with this caveat, these estimates demonstrate the relative strength of the Utah economy.
The Salt Lake County population is estimated to have increased by 15,652 to reach 1,079,721. This accounts for just over one-third of the state’s total population growth. About three quarters (76.8 percent) of the county’s growth is estimated to be natural increase. Utah County’s population is estimated to have grown by 12,003 to reach 551,891. This accounts for over one fourth (26.1 percent) of the state’s total increase. The natural increase component is 81.6 percent of the Utah County growth. Davis County population is estimated to be 322,094, an annual increase of 6,313. Two thirds of this increase is accounted for by natural increase, and the county contributed 13.7 percent of the state’s growth. The population of Washington County increased by 3,144 to become 147,800. Nearly two-thirds of this growth came from net in-migration.
The counties with the largest estimated annual rate of change are Duchesne (5.5 percent), Wasatch (4.4 percent), Daggett (3.7 percent), Morgan (3.7 percent), Uintah (2.9 percent), Utah (2.2 percent), and Washington (2.2 percent). These are energy counties (Duchesne, Daggett, and Uintah) of urban core expansion (Wasatch, Morgan, and Utah), or southwest Utah growth dynamics (Washington County).
Net in-migration was the largest contributor to the growth of Daggett, Duchesne, Morgan, Wasatch, and Washington Counties, equally or exceeding 65 percent of the growth of the populations of these counties.
Population Estimates and Components of Change Analysis
Counties in Utah, July 1, 2013
